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Futurisca A computational laboratory for the future
Scenario library

Ten scenarios, already built

Each one loads in a click and is a starting point, not an answer. Change a date, a depth or a country and it becomes yours.

What is in the library

Technology

China restricts chip exports

Leading edge supply is withheld from a bloc, fab capacity is redirected, and the shortage propagates through investment, productivity and prices rather than stopping at the semiconductor line.

  • Export control
  • Fab capacity
  • Tariff
Energy

A long oil shock

Liquids supply falls and stays down. Watch the split between countries that produce, countries that refine and countries that only consume.

  • Oil supply
  • Freight cost
  • Policy rate
Climate

The world prices carbon

A price is applied worldwide and rises on a schedule. Emissions, renewable share, inflation and competitiveness all move, and not in the same direction for everyone.

  • Carbon price
  • Renewable build
  • Inflation target
Trade

The G7 acts together

One package imposed by a whole coalition at once. The engine weights the load by the share of world output imposing it, so a bloc is not the same as a country.

  • Coalition tariff
  • Sanctions
  • Trade agreement
People

A drier world

Water stress rises worldwide and the run warms by an extra 1.4 degrees. Agriculture, migration pressure and stability respond over the full horizon.

  • Water stress
  • Warming
  • Migration policy
Demography

A fertility policy that works

Births per woman rise in the countries that chose it. Nothing shows up for a decade, and then everything does, which is the point of a long horizon.

  • Fertility policy
  • Migration policy
  • Retirement age
Money

Rates stay higher for longer

The policy rule is shifted and held. Debt service, currencies, investment and unemployment carry the weight in different proportions by country.

  • Policy rate
  • Debt restructuring
  • Capital controls
Capability

AI capability accelerates

The compute and capability index rises faster than the prior. Productivity gains arrive unevenly, and the displacement term in unemployment is visible separately.

  • AI capability
  • Fab capacity
  • R and D spend
Security

A regional conflict

Tension and conflict intensity rise in one region. Alignment, freight, energy and risk premia move together, which is usually the part that gets underestimated.

  • Conflict
  • Sanctions
  • Military spend
Baseline

The world carrying on

No levers. The world as it is, with its usual quota of bad luck. Run it first so every other scenario has something honest to be measured against.

  • None

A preset is a starting point

Every scenario in the library is built from the same levers you have. Load one, look at what it set, then move a date or swap a country. There is nothing in a preset that you could not have built yourself in a minute.

Saving a scenario of your own needs an account. Running one does not.

Load one and change something

The presets are in the panel on the left of the simulator.

Open the simulator