Questions people actually ask

The simulator is not. It is a deterministic economic and geopolitical model with a random shock process, written in JavaScript, running in your browser. No model provider is involved in a run. The only optional AI feature is a written summary of a run you already produced, and it is off until you add a key of your own.

No, and it is built to keep saying so. It reports a distribution of outcomes conditional on the world you described and the assumptions on the method page. Where it is extrapolating past anything history can check, it marks the run as low confidence and tells you which parameter is responsible.

Accuracy is the wrong frame for a scenario engine. The useful question is whether the structure is defensible and whether the comparison between two runs is clean. The method page states every prior, every known weakness and the places the model is weakest. Read it before you quote anything.

Because the seed fixes the shocks. That is deliberate. If two runs met different luck you could never tell whether a difference came from your lever or from chance.

Because of common random numbers. When two scenarios meet identical shocks, the difference between them is the signal with the noise already cancelled, so a few hundred paths resolve what would otherwise need tens of thousands.

Macro figures for the economies that drive the model are entered by hand from published sources and marked curated. Sixteen indicators for every country can be refreshed from the World Bank in one click, and each value is stamped with its year. Anything inferred from region, income tier and structure is marked patterned and never presented as measured.

Yes. 238 countries and territories, including the small ones that usually get dropped. None are skipped, and any whose data is thin says so on its own row.

Yes, in two ways. Override a single field by hand in the admin, or send the correction through the contact form with a source and it goes into the curated set.

The whole table downloads as a spreadsheet from the admin, with the provenance marks and the source years included.

No. The whole simulator, every country, every layer, every lever and all 250 futures run without one. An account only saves scenarios so you can open them again.

No. The engine runs in your browser. What you build never leaves your machine unless you choose to save it to your own account on your own site.

If it runs a modern browser, yes. A full run of 250 futures across 238 countries takes about two to three seconds on ordinary hardware, in a background thread, so the page stays responsive. On a phone the ensemble drops to 200 automatically.

Yes. What you produce is yours. The terms ask one thing: do not present modelled output as measured fact, and say it came from a model.

No. Live exchange rates, earthquakes and weather come from open sources that need no key, and the simulator is unaffected if they cannot be reached. The only key anywhere is the optional one for written briefings.