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Futurisca A computational laboratory for the future
Who uses it

For anyone whose job is a question about the future

Not a dashboard of what happened. A place to ask what would happen, to see the whole world while you ask it, and to read the chain of reasoning that produced the answer.

Twelve kinds of question this was built for

Policy and government

What does this measure actually do

A tariff, an export control, a carbon price or a migration rule does not stop at the border it was written for. The engine carries it through trade, prices, currencies, employment and alignment, and shows you who absorbed it.

  • Second order effects on partners you did not name
  • Who retaliates, and what that costs at home
  • The range of outcomes, not the one that suits the memo
Strategy and risk

What breaks if the world shifts

Concentration is easy to see and hard to price. Put the shock in, run it against the baseline on the same seed, and read the difference as the shock rather than the noise.

  • Chip supply, energy supply, shipping and freight
  • Currency and rate paths under a stress you choose
  • Which branch of outcomes you are exposed to, and its share
Supply chain

Where the single points of failure are

Put the chokepoints, the fab clusters and the trade flow on the map at once and the shape of the problem is visible before you run anything. Then close one and see how far the effect travels.

  • Twelve straits and canals, with what each one carries
  • The eight places leading edge chips are actually made
  • Input shortfall as a layer, country by country, year by year
Energy and commodities

Who is exposed when supply moves

Energy dependence, oil production, renewable share and the energy flow are all layers. A supply lever moves the price, the price moves inflation, and inflation moves rates, currencies and debt service, which is where most of the damage actually lands.

  • Producers, refiners and pure consumers separated
  • Prices that clear rather than prices you assume
  • The lag before capacity answers a price
Central banking and markets

What a rate path does to everyone else

Shift the policy rule and hold it. Debt service, currencies, investment and unemployment carry the weight in different proportions by country, and the risk premium does the rest.

  • A Taylor rule you can push off its setting
  • Currencies that respond to rate differentials and risk
  • A financing crisis hazard that can fire in any year
Development and humanitarian

Which places are already under strain

Water stress, food self sufficiency, stability and emigration pressure sit beside the live feed of emergencies currently marked ongoing. The map shows both at once, and says which is observed and which is modelled.

  • Active emergencies from ReliefWeb, live
  • Migration pressure as an index rather than an anecdote
  • Every country on file, with none skipped
Climate and environment

What a warming path costs, and to whom

Warming, water stress and a carbon price are levers. Emissions, renewable share, agriculture, inflation and competitiveness all move, and not in the same direction for everyone.

  • Emissions per head as a layer across the run
  • A carbon price applied worldwide or by coalition
  • Agricultural exposure separated from the rest of output
Demography and labour

What arrives in twenty years

Births per woman, median age, urbanisation and net migration are layers you can watch across the horizon. A fertility policy shows nothing for a decade and then shows everything, which is the argument for a long run.

  • The twenty year lag from birth rate to labour force
  • An automation displacement term reported separately
  • Migration driven by income gaps and stress rather than assumed
Research and teaching

A model students can take apart

Every headline number is built as a sum of named terms, so the interface and the arithmetic agree exactly. You can open growth, find the term, and argue with the coefficient.

  • An exact decomposition rather than a black box
  • Parameter priors stated on the method page
  • Historical analogues scored against your run
Journalism and analysis

A number you can source

Every country row carries a provenance mark, and every sourced figure carries the year it came from. Nothing on the screen is presented as measured when it was patterned.

  • Curated, partial or sourced, marked per row
  • One click refreshes seventeen indicators from the World Bank
  • Download the whole table as a spreadsheet
Classroom and briefing

Something to put on the screen

The globe turns, the flows move, the timeline plays, and the layers go on and off in front of the room. Then somebody asks what if, you type it, and two seconds later there is an answer with a range on it.

  • A flat map and a real globe, both interactive
  • A timeline that plays the whole horizon
  • No account and no queue for anyone watching
Curiosity

Because the world is interesting

No account, no credits, no queue. Open it, write a sentence, and see what a coupled model of the planet does with it. That is a perfectly good reason.

  • Forty three ways to colour the world
  • Everything runs in your own browser
  • Nothing you write is sent anywhere

The common thread is a question with a range in the answer

None of these jobs wants a single number. They want the shape of a problem, the direction and rough size of an effect, the consequences nobody named, and the assumptions the view depends on. That is what a few hundred futures give you and a forecast does not.

If a run comes back with a wide spread, that is the answer. Narrowing it would be a decision about presentation rather than about the world.

The fastest way to know if it fits is to open it

Write one sentence about something you already have a view on, and see whether the model agrees with you.

Open the simulator
Product 08 / 09