01
Instability
How likely this place is to be somewhere things go wrong, now. Seven terms: stability, tension, unemployment, inflation, sovereign risk, the youth weight in the population and water stress.
Reference
Four composites, with the arithmetic shown
An index is a claim dressed as a number. The only honest way to ship one is to say exactly what went into it, with what weight, and let anybody read it.
The rule these are built to
Every input is a field this plugin already holds and already shows on its own. Every term is normalised to nought to one by a stated band, so a country at the worst end of every term scores a hundred. The weights are published, they sum to one, and clicking an index anywhere in the instrument opens its own arithmetic for that country in that year. Nothing is stored: each one is recomputed from the run on screen, so it moves with the scenario instead of sitting still under it.
What each one asks
02
Resilience
How well a place absorbs a shock rather than passing it on: income, governance, food, energy, fiscal headroom, how diversified its output is and how connected it is. Deliberately not the same as wealth, and the map shows where the two part company.
03
Chokepoint exposure
How much of a country's position depends on a strait staying open: what share of its output leaves, how much energy and food it has to import, and whether it has a coast at all.
04
Scored hotspot
Instability multiplied by how much the rest of the world would feel it. A small unstable country far from anything scores low here and high on instability, and that gap is the whole point of having both.
What an index cannot do
The bands are judgements
Where a term stops counting as bad is a decision somebody made. These are visible judgements rather than hidden ones, which is the most that can be claimed for any index.
A single number hides its terms
Two countries can reach the same score for opposite reasons. That is why the score is never shown without a way to open it, on the map, in the profile and in the monitor.
It is not a forecast
Three of the four move with the run, so they are as modelled as everything else after the base year, and the interface marks them as derived rather than measured.
Every term, for every country
Open a country and the index opens with it, terms and weights and all.
Open the simulator