Scenario library
Ten scenarios, already built
Each one loads in a click and is a starting point, not an answer. Change a date, a depth or a country and it becomes yours.
What is in the library
Technology
China restricts chip exports
Leading edge supply is withheld from a bloc, fab capacity is redirected, and the shortage propagates through investment, productivity and prices rather than stopping at the semiconductor line.
- Export control
- Fab capacity
- Tariff
Energy
A long oil shock
Liquids supply falls and stays down. Watch the split between countries that produce, countries that refine and countries that only consume.
- Oil supply
- Freight cost
- Policy rate
Climate
The world prices carbon
A price is applied worldwide and rises on a schedule. Emissions, renewable share, inflation and competitiveness all move, and not in the same direction for everyone.
- Carbon price
- Renewable build
- Inflation target
Trade
The G7 acts together
One package imposed by a whole coalition at once. The engine weights the load by the share of world output imposing it, so a bloc is not the same as a country.
- Coalition tariff
- Sanctions
- Trade agreement
People
A drier world
Water stress rises worldwide and the run warms by an extra 1.4 degrees. Agriculture, migration pressure and stability respond over the full horizon.
- Water stress
- Warming
- Migration policy
Demography
A fertility policy that works
Births per woman rise in the countries that chose it. Nothing shows up for a decade, and then everything does, which is the point of a long horizon.
- Fertility policy
- Migration policy
- Retirement age
Money
Rates stay higher for longer
The policy rule is shifted and held. Debt service, currencies, investment and unemployment carry the weight in different proportions by country.
- Policy rate
- Debt restructuring
- Capital controls
Capability
AI capability accelerates
The compute and capability index rises faster than the prior. Productivity gains arrive unevenly, and the displacement term in unemployment is visible separately.
- AI capability
- Fab capacity
- R and D spend
Security
A regional conflict
Tension and conflict intensity rise in one region. Alignment, freight, energy and risk premia move together, which is usually the part that gets underestimated.
- Conflict
- Sanctions
- Military spend
Baseline
The world carrying on
No levers. The world as it is, with its usual quota of bad luck. Run it first so every other scenario has something honest to be measured against.
A preset is a starting point
Every scenario in the library is built from the same levers you have. Load one, look at what it set, then move a date or swap a country. There is nothing in a preset that you could not have built yourself in a minute.
Saving a scenario of your own needs an account. Running one does not.
Load one and change something
The presets are in the panel on the left of the simulator.
Open the simulator