The range is the answer
A point estimate for a decade out is a guess wearing a suit. Every output is a distribution with its width reported.
About
Why this exists and who builds it.
Futurisca started from a simple frustration. Ask almost any tool what happens if a large economy restricts an export, and you get either a paragraph of hedged prose or a single number with no reasoning attached. Neither helps you think.
The alternative is not a better guess. It is a model you can interrogate: one that returns a range rather than a point, that clusters its futures into families you can name, that shows the terms behind every number and lets you keep opening them until you reach the assumption underneath, and that tells you plainly where it is extrapolating past anything history can check.
That is the whole product. A state of the world, a coupled model over it, and an interface built around the question why rather than the question what.
It is built and maintained by Lewis De La Paz.
The principles it is built on
Show the arithmetic
If a number cannot be opened into the terms that produced it, it should not be on the screen.
Mark the data
An estimate presented as a measurement is the one thing a world model must never do.
Say what it cannot do
The limits page is not a disclaimer. It is a feature.
Questions, corrections, better data
Corrections to the world dataset are especially welcome.
Get in touch